Is Wine Shrinking? These 10 Numbers Show Where It Isn't
Wine is shrinking overall, but not everywhere. 10 verified numbers on where it still grows, and what to do about it.
The headlines about wine in 2026 are mostly gloomy, and overall volume is still falling. But the market is shifting rather than shrinking, and the places where it still grows are easy to miss.
We picked the 10 verified numbers that best show where wine industry trends for 2026 and 2027 point up, and what each one means for anyone running a digital wine list, tasting room, or event.
Quick answer: Not everywhere. Growth hasn't disappeared. Non-alcoholic wine dollar sales are up 18.5%, sparkling is still growing in US stores, and wine-based cocktails drive most of wine's dollar growth. $200+ wines and small formats are gaining, and nearly half of consumers say bars and restaurants are the best place to try a new drink brand. In fine wine, US buyers are back, with 26.9% of purchase value in the second quarter (Liv-ex).
New styles are where the growth is
1. +18.5%: non-alcoholic wine sales
US non-alcoholic wine dollar sales rose 18.5% in the four weeks to October 10, 2026, with volume up 16.1% (NielsenIQ), and Southern Glazer's reports an 18% rise in its own business, led by sparkling. No/low has become a growth line rather than a courtesy option. Two or three good bottles, including a sparkling one, now earn their place on a list; our look at no and low alcohol wine covers the category in depth.
2. +1.4%: sparkling is still growing
Sparkling wine is still growing in US stores, with dollar sales up 1.4% over the same four weeks (NielsenIQ). Southern Glazer's CEO Wayne Chaplin counts it among wine's bright spots, "whether it's Champagne or Prosecco," alongside $10–20 wine and luxury (Prosecco DOC is a ShareVino partner). Bubbles sell by the glass and suit aperitifs, celebrations, and food, so a short sparkling section with one value pick and one premium pick covers most guests.
3. 92%: wine cocktails lead the dollar growth
Wine-based cocktails account for 92% of total wine dollar growth, according to Southern Glazer's "Raise the Bar: H2 2026" report, and Impact Databank forecasts wine RTDs rising from 6% of wine volume in 2025 to nearly 11% by 2030. In other words, much of wine's new growth comes in a can or a glass with ice. A spritz or wine cocktail on the menu, with clear flavor cues, borrows what is working there.
Premium bottles and smaller formats are gaining
4. +10%: $200+ wines shipped direct
At the top of the market, wines priced at $200 and up grew 10% in direct-to-consumer volume in 2025, the only price band that grew (Sovos ShipCompliant and WineBusiness Analytics). Collectors and loyal club members are still buying. Wineries with a strong top tier can reward them with first access, allocations, and a reason to visit.
5. 58%: small formats drive volume growth
Smaller bottles are pulling their weight: 200 ml and 500 ml wines drive 58% of core wine volume growth at Southern Glazer's (Raise the Bar: H2 2026). They lower the commitment for guests who want a glass or two, or want to try something new. Half bottles on a list and small formats at events make that trial easy.
Younger guests and the on-premise keep discovery alive
6. 23%: younger drinkers' share of US wine drinkers
Drinkers aged legal drinking age (LDA) to 34 already make up 23% of regular US wine drinkers, and IWSR credits them with "higher involvement, experimentation and openness." Southern Glazer's adds that Gen Z wine spend is up 8% versus 2020. This generation is in the market and curious, and short flavor descriptions, small pours, and a list they can browse on their phone meet them where they are.
7. 46% and 69%: bars and restaurants turn trial into sales
Nearly half of consumers (46%) named bars and restaurants as the best place to try a new brand in Southern Glazer's 2026 report, and 69% of those who discover a brand there later look for it at retail. The on-premise is still wine's showroom: a glass poured tonight can become a bottle bought next week. Clear descriptions and an easy way to save or buy the wine afterwards turn that interest into sales.
8. +21%: trade buyers still turn up
Wine Paris welcomed 63,541 trade visitors in February 2026, up about 21% on 2025, with 6,537 exhibitors (Vinexposium). Buyers are concentrating on the shows that work for them, and exhibitors now want proof that a stand pays off. Our guide to wine trade shows 2027 covers the calendar and how to measure ROI.
The outlook: a floor is in sight
9. 2027–28: the bottom, then modest growth
Silicon Valley Bank expects the US market's decline to ease in 2026, bottom out in 2027–2028, and then return to modest growth. Its 2025 figures already showed a smaller decline than 2024's (SVB State of the US Wine Industry 2026). It is a forecast, but a hopeful one. The wineries still growing, SVB says, are the ones changing how they engage with consumers instead of waiting for the old market to return, and the bright spots above show where to start.
10. 26.9%: US buyers are back in fine wine
Fine wine is steadying too. US buyers accounted for 26.9% of purchase value on the Liv-ex exchange in the second quarter of 2026, up from 23.3% in the first quarter and well above their 2025 average of 20.7%, and they paid an average of 1.1% above market price for wines in the Liv-ex Fine Wine 1000 (Liv-ex H1 2026 Wine Market Report). Liv-ex says the major fine wine indices stabilized in the first half and expects that price stability to continue, which is good news for importers, merchants, and producers of the most traded labels.
Where to act: the bright spots at a glance
Here are the ten numbers in one view. Each row pairs a bright spot with the simplest move it suggests.
Wine trends for restaurants, wineries, and events: what to do about them
If you run a restaurant or wine bar: Build around the bright spots: two or more no/low options, sparkling by the glass, a wine cocktail, and a few half bottles. Our guide to no and low alcohol wine covers what to pour, and many New York lists already do it: 73 of the 785 we have digitized (9.3%) include at least one non-alcoholic wine. Recent additions The Modern, The View, Skinos, da Adriano, Trattoria Dell'Arte, and The Standard Grill all pour one, from Leitz's Zero Point Five Pinot Noir and the alcohol-free Dr. Lo Riesling from Dr. Loosen (a ShareVino partner) to a 200 ml Vinada sparkling.
Write short flavor cues; our guide to Storytelling on the Wine List shows how. Then track which wines guests actually save and rate (restaurants and wine bars).
If you're a winery or tasting room: Lean into what is growing: your top tier for collectors, small formats for trial and gifting, and a sparkling or no/low option at the tasting bar. Follow up with visitors quickly, while the wine is still fresh in their minds.
If you're an event organizer: Trade visitors are concentrating on the shows that deliver for them, and exhibitors want evidence. Plan to share engagement data after the event (wine events and festivals).
If you just love wine: Plenty of supply means sharp prices on many bottles, and there are more styles to explore than ever, from no/low to half bottles. It is a good year to try appellations and producers you would normally skip.
Is your business ready for 2027? A 6-question self-assessment
Give yourself one point for each yes. Scores are below the list.
1. Do you know which 10 wines your guests or customers choose (or reorder) most, based on data rather than memory?
2. Do you offer at least two no- or low-alcohol wine options?
3. Is sparkling available by the glass or in a small format?
4. Does every wine you sell have a one-line flavor description a non-expert understands?
5. Have you reviewed your sub-$12 (or entry-tier) SKUs for slow movers in the last six months?
6. Do you follow up with guests or visitors after they try a wine they liked?
Scoring:
• 5–6 points: Ready. You're aligned with where demand is heading. Fine-tune pricing and mix.
• 3–4 points: Exposed. At least one growth lever (no/low, sparkling, follow-up) is missing. Fix one this quarter.
• 0–2 points: At risk. Your program is built for the 2019 market. Start with question 1; Wine Menu Analytics is a good first read.
FAQ: wine industry trends 2026
Is wine consumption declining in 2026?
Overall, yes: US and global wine volumes are still falling, and SVB expects the US market to bottom out in 2027–2028. But several parts of the market are growing, including non-alcoholic wine, sparkling, wine-based cocktails, $200+ wines, and small formats.
Which parts of the wine market are growing?
Non-alcoholic wine (dollar sales up 18.5% in the four weeks to October 10, NielsenIQ), sparkling (up 1.4%), wine-based cocktails (92% of wine dollar growth at Southern Glazer's), $200+ wines shipped direct (+10% volume, Sovos), and 200 ml and 500 ml formats. Younger drinkers already make up 23% of regular US wine drinkers (IWSR), and in fine wine, US buyers' share of purchase value rose to 26.9% in the second quarter (Liv-ex).
When will the wine market recover?
SVB forecasts a bottom in 2027–2028, followed by modest growth. Its 2025 figures already showed a smaller decline than in 2024.
Are younger people drinking wine?
Yes. IWSR finds 23% of regular US wine drinkers are aged LDA–34, and Southern Glazer's reports Gen Z wine spend up 8% versus 2020.
What are the top wine trends for restaurants?
Sparkling by the glass, no/low options, wine cocktails, small formats, and clear flavor descriptions. Nearly half of consumers (46%) also say bars and restaurants are the best place to try a new brand.
Key Takeaway
Wine is shrinking overall, but not everywhere, and 2026 is already showing positive signs. Non-alcoholic wine, sparkling, wine-based cocktails, $200+ wines, and small formats are all growing; younger drinkers make up nearly a quarter of regular US wine drinkers, and nearly half of consumers still choose bars and restaurants to try something new. Programs built around those bright spots are best placed for 2027, when SVB expects the market to find its floor and Liv-ex already sees fine wine prices steadying.
Research Cited
Figures come from retail sales data, a distributor's market report, industry data providers, and a trade fair's results. Several are forecasts or single-source estimates, and sources measure sales, shipments, and volume differently, so treat them as directional insight rather than proof.
• Non-alcoholic wine and sparkling: NielsenIQ four weeks to October 10, BevNews, October 20, 2026.
• Growth pockets: Southern Glazer's New Report Identifies Five Growth Opportunities, September 8, 2026, with detail from Distribution Strategy Group, and the Wayne Chaplin interview, Shanken News Daily, April 1, 2026.
• Wine cocktails forecast: Wine Market To Slip For Sixth Straight Year, Shanken News Daily (Impact Databank), October 5, 2026.
• Direct to consumer: 2026 Direct-to-Consumer Wine Shipping Report, Sovos ShipCompliant and WineBusiness Analytics, January 27, 2026.
• Younger drinkers: Younger LDA+ drinkers hold promise as wine declines persist, IWSR, April 2, 2026.
• Trade fairs: Wine Paris 2026 final press release, Vinexposium, February 13, 2026.
• Outlook: Silicon Valley Bank Releases 25th Annual State of the US Wine Industry Report, SVB, January 15, 2026, and the full report.
• Fine wine: Liv-ex H1 2026 Wine Market Report, Liv-ex, July 2026, with its figures as reported by Harpers, July 16, 2026.
• New York lists: ShareVino platform data, 785 New York restaurant and wine bar lists digitized August to October 2026, checked October 24, 2026; each named venue's non-alcoholic wine was confirmed on its own menu.
Want to see which of these trends show up on your own list? Explore ShareVino digital wine lists; the Pro plan adds analytics on what guests save, rate, and click.